43:e festivalen 24 jan - 3 feb, 2020
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Nostradamus

Nostradamus is a multiyear international initiative to document and analyse industry changes and make projections for the future. Take part of the reports, seminars and news of the Nostradamus project here!

43:e festivalen
24 Jan -
3 Feb, 2020

Nostradamus: Global threats, new giants and AI as a creative tool

On November 14 Göteborg Film Festival invites you to a future oriented morning during Audiovisual Days! Johanna Koljonen gives an updated key-note of the sixth Nostradamus report ”Relevance in a New Reality” followed by an expert panel on AI in the audiovisual industries, now and in a near future. 09:00 – 09:45 Breakfast with a […]

Nostradamus returns to Marché du Film's NEXT

Göteborg Film Festival’s Nostradamus project returns to Cannes, bringing news and insights on the near future of the screen industries. Media analyst Johanna Koljonen presents an updated version of the 2019 report ”Relevance in a New Reality” and host a visionary on-stage interview with MUBI’s Efe Cakarel. This years the Nostradamus sessions are presented for […]

Presentation of the 6th Nostradamus report

The Göteborg Film Festival’s 6th Nostradamus Report – “Relevance in a New Reality” is here! The annual report looks into the future of the screen industries 3-5 years from now through research and interviews with industry experts. This year’s report, “Relevance in a New Reality”, discusses the uncertain future of public funding, major movements on […]

2019 Nostradamus report

The 2019 Nostradamus report, ”Relevance in a New Reality”, discusses the uncertain future of public funding, major movements on the streaming market, the role of cinema in the new value chain, potential paths forward for VR, and the need for a rebooted industry conversation around tech and shared challenges. Read the Nostradamus report 2019 here […]

Nostradamus at Audiovisual Days

Nostradamus på Audiovisual Days 18 oktober Den 18 oktober bjuder Göteborg Film Festival på en fullspäckad förmiddag under årets upplaga av Lindholmen Science Parks Audiovisual Days. En försmak av årets festivalupplaga, Johanna Koljonen presenterar en uppdaterad key-note av den femte Nostradamus-rapporten följt av ett samtal där vår expertpanel ger sin syn på framtiden för TV […]

2020 Nostradamus report

Göteborg Film Festival’s 7th Nostradamus Report – ”A Creative Explosion” – was presented January 31 at a seminar during Nordic Film Market. The annual report, written by media analyst Johanna Koljonen, looks into the future of the screen industries 3-5 years from now through research and interviews with industry experts.

The report holds forth a near future where high quality, creativity and scripted content is king. A new wave of artistically outstanding feature filmmakers will offer opportunities for arthouse cinema to connect with younger audiences. Demand for gender and cultural diversification will continue, and the industry will next need to address the more complex pipeline problems affecting diverse recruitment.

Other themes discussed in the report are the consequences of the escalating streaming wars, alternative release patterns taking shape, and how the capacity issues caused by extreme demand on scripted content threaten quality. Streamers are also putting pressure on the traditional role of the producer, which may challenge cultural diversity down the line, especially as consolidations continue. Access to data analysis will be of increasing importance across roles in the industry.

Finally, the report discusses how emerging technologies – VR, deep fakes, game engines, etc – is causing fundamental changes in how audiovisual storytelling is produced and understood, with inevitable ripple effects on how audiences perceive the formats and platforms of film and TV as well.

The annual report is written by media analyst Johanna Koljonen.

The 2020 Nostradamus report interviewees are:

Lars Blomgren, Executive Producer and Head of Scripted EMEA, Endemol Shine Group
Anna Croneman, Head of Drama, SVT
Leon Forde, Managing Director, Olsberg SPI
Stine Helgeland, Head of Department Communications, Strategic Insight and International Relations, Norwegian Film Institute
Philip Knatchbull, CEO, Curzon Cinemas
Alexandra Lebret, Managing Director, European Producer’s Club
Fabio Lima, Founder & CEO, Sofa Digital
Alex Mahon, CEO, Channel 4
Susanna Snell, Head of Audience Insight, YLE
Bérénice Vincent, Co-founder Collectif 50/50 and sales agent, Totem Film

Following the presentation of the report, a panel discussion themed “The Future of Gender Parity and Inclusion” in connection to Göteborg Film Festival’s gender parity initiative 50/50 Vision was presented. Panel: Iram Haq, director (What will people say?, I Am Yours), Norway; Anna Serner, CEO, Swedish Film Institute, Sweden; Bérénice Vincent, Co-founder of Collectif 50/50, and co-founder, Totem Film, France; and Rhys Ernst, director/producer (Adam, Transparent) United States.
Moderated by Johanna Koljonen, media analyst and author of the Nostradamus report.

The report presentation and panel are available to watch at Kulturakademin’s K-play.

Nostradamus Report: A Creative Explosion can be downloaded here  

Editorial team: Johanna Koljonen, Cia Edström, Josef Kullengård

Editorial Advisory Board: Åsa Garnert, Tomas Eskilsson

The Nostradamus Project is founded and run by Göteborg Film Festival with support from and in collaboration with the project’s new main contributor Film i Väst. With additional support from Nordisk Film & TV Fond, Västra Götalandsregionen, Creative Europe/MEDIA and Kulturakademin.

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Looking ahead

How are the screen industries changing in the next 3-5 years?

The screen media are changing fast.

With production, distribution and consumption almost entirely digital, business models, audience behaviour and funding systems are in flux. New opportunities arise and old ways of thinking fall by the wayside, while the purpose of film remains the same. Regardless of format and platform, it is still all about moving the audience: sharing, entertaining, challenging, moving, uplifting.

The Nostradamus Project has as its mission to document and predict these changes on a 3-5 year horizon, and to present analysis in a manner that is equally comprehensible to producers and policymakers, stars and students. We do this through interviews with change-makers and people in strategic positions in the industry about what they are doing and creating today. Context is provided by the excellent research and journalism that is publicly available, but which you may be too busy to close read.

We have published five annual Nostradamus reports, on topics ranging from audience expectations to ad-blocking, from distribution to diversity, and from holdback windows to VR. The reports are free to download here; because of the scope, at least the last two tend to be up-to-date. In addition, we organise international seminars in Göteborg during the Nordic Film Market and in Cannes at the Marché du Film, and with a more Nordic focus during Audiovisual Days.

Nostradamus Project analysis has also been presented at film markets from Berlin to Rio, to film funds, and at meetings of for instance the EFADs Think Tank and the EFARN. The 6th annual Nostradamus report was released on Feb 1, 2019. Click here to read it! 

The 7th Nostradamus report will be released during Nordic Film Market January 31, 2020. 

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Contact information

Cia Edström, Head of Nordic Film Market and Nostradamus, cia.edstrom@goteborgfilmfestival.se Johanna Koljonen, Nostradamus editor, johanna.koljonen@participation.design General Informationindustry@goteborgfilmfestival.se

Johanna Koljonen: a creative renaissance in film

The editor of the Nostradamus Project, media analyst Johanna Koljonen, gives an updated version of her much-appreciated lecture at the Marché du Film. After a decade of changes, challenges and trends rocking the industry, what everyone working in film needs to do next can be boiled down to five very simple pieces of advice. Liberated […]

Storytelling in immersive environments

As predicted by the Nostradamus Project, we have seen a radical growth of VR storytelling in the last year, and a continuing normalisation of multi-platform narratives in mainstream entertainment. What are the challenges and storytelling opportunities offered for the film industry by these changes? Games and storytelling innovator Carl Heath and scriptwriting legend Linda Aronson […]

Johanna Koljonen: Nostradamus 2016

Anna Higgs: Risk & reward in the audience´s world

  Anna Higgs is a multi-award winning creative producer. She has just been appointed Creative Director at NOWNESS, a video channel showcasing the best in culture.  NOWNESS is a movement for creative excellence in storytelling celebrating the extraordinary of every day.  NOWNESS works with exceptional talent, both established and emerging, and connects a huge global […]

The Future is Now: Next Steps from Film Art & Screen Industries

MAY 21, FESTIVAL DE CANNES 2017 – What’s changing in funding and sales of European and art house cinema? How does VR fit into this emerging digital landscape? What is the role of theatrical distribution when most films will never reach the silver screen and the window system is changing? Lively analysis and knowledgeable debate […]

New Opportunities & a Positive Ripple Effect

Västsvenska Filmdagarna is an increasingly important meeting place for the Swedish industry focusing on the west coast. At this year’s event, the Nostradamus Project is hosting a session on October 12th at 10.45-12.30. First Johanna Koljonen will present the updated findings from the latest Nostradamus Report. What is happening in the film industry? How is […]

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