44:e festivalen 29 jan - 8 feb, 2021
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Nostradamus

Nostradamus is a multiyear international initiative to document and analyse industry changes and make projections for the future. Take part of the reports, seminars and news of the Nostradamus project here!

43:e festivalen
24 Jan -
3 Feb, 2020

Do or Die? The 2018 Nostradamus report is presented

During Göteborg Film Festival 2018 the 5th Nostradamus Report – titled Do or Die? – was presented. It takes on the topics of whether the film industry as we know it will survive, and what European film makers, financiers and exhibitors need to do to compete with the global majors and remain a cultural force. The Nostradamus Project […]

Digitisation of Cinemas Leads to Content Diversity – and More Audience Work

On Sunday, August 20th, the Norwegian International Film Festival in Haugesund hosted a seminar on the topic “Narrow Diversity” – exploring whether content in cinemas has diversified in the wake of digitisation. The event was presented in collaboration with the Centre for the Creative Industries at the BI Norwegian Business School. Norway was the first […]

Bodies, Spaces & Communities: Experience Design for Cinemas (& VR)

On November 29th in Glasgow, Johanna Koljonen gave a keynote speech at the UK film exhibition innovation conference This Way Up. The conference provided two excellent days of interesting input for the upcoming Nostradamus report; you can find a very good writeup at the BFI and a shorter piece focusing on pricing and VR at […]

The audience mindset: Nostradamus at Cannes

The Nostradamus Project was invited this year to give a session at the NEXT pavilion at the Marché du Film at the Cannes film festival. On Saturday, May 14th 2016, with support from .film, we presented a lecture by Nostradamus analyst Johanna Koljonen, followed by a panel with industry heavyweights Lene Børglum (Space Rocket Nation), Mike […]

Day-and-date revisited

We had expected 2015 to push the day-and-date discussion further, but not that the two big discussion pieces would be Netflix and Amazon originals. In October, Netflix released Beasts of No Nation in US theatres, and at Curzon cinemas in the UK. At the same time they made it available to their subscribers globally free of charge. Since this violated the […]

2020 Nostradamus report

Göteborg Film Festival’s 7th Nostradamus Report – ”A Creative Explosion” – was presented January 31 at a seminar during Nordic Film Market. The annual report, written by media analyst Johanna Koljonen, looks into the future of the screen industries 3-5 years from now through research and interviews with industry experts.

The report holds forth a near future where high quality, creativity and scripted content is king. A new wave of artistically outstanding feature filmmakers will offer opportunities for arthouse cinema to connect with younger audiences. Demand for gender and cultural diversification will continue, and the industry will next need to address the more complex pipeline problems affecting diverse recruitment.

Other themes discussed in the report are the consequences of the escalating streaming wars, alternative release patterns taking shape, and how the capacity issues caused by extreme demand on scripted content threaten quality. Streamers are also putting pressure on the traditional role of the producer, which may challenge cultural diversity down the line, especially as consolidations continue. Access to data analysis will be of increasing importance across roles in the industry.

Finally, the report discusses how emerging technologies – VR, deep fakes, game engines, etc – is causing fundamental changes in how audiovisual storytelling is produced and understood, with inevitable ripple effects on how audiences perceive the formats and platforms of film and TV as well.

The annual report is written by media analyst Johanna Koljonen.

The 2020 Nostradamus report interviewees are:

Lars Blomgren, Executive Producer and Head of Scripted EMEA, Endemol Shine Group
Anna Croneman, Head of Drama, SVT
Leon Forde, Managing Director, Olsberg SPI
Stine Helgeland, Head of Department Communications, Strategic Insight and International Relations, Norwegian Film Institute
Philip Knatchbull, CEO, Curzon Cinemas
Alexandra Lebret, Managing Director, European Producer’s Club
Fabio Lima, Founder & CEO, Sofa Digital
Alex Mahon, CEO, Channel 4
Susanna Snell, Head of Audience Insight, YLE
Bérénice Vincent, Co-founder Collectif 50/50 and sales agent, Totem Film

Following the presentation of the report, a panel discussion themed “The Future of Gender Parity and Inclusion” in connection to Göteborg Film Festival’s gender parity initiative 50/50 Vision was presented. Panel: Iram Haq, director (What will people say?, I Am Yours), Norway; Anna Serner, CEO, Swedish Film Institute, Sweden; Bérénice Vincent, Co-founder of Collectif 50/50, and co-founder, Totem Film, France; and Rhys Ernst, director/producer (Adam, Transparent) United States.
Moderated by Johanna Koljonen, media analyst and author of the Nostradamus report.

The report presentation and panel are available to watch at Kulturakademin’s K-play.

Nostradamus Report: A Creative Explosion can be downloaded here  

Editorial team: Johanna Koljonen, Cia Edström, Josef Kullengård

Editorial Advisory Board: Åsa Garnert, Tomas Eskilsson

The Nostradamus Project is founded and run by Göteborg Film Festival with support from and in collaboration with the project’s new main contributor Film i Väst. With additional support from Nordisk Film & TV Fond, Västra Götalandsregionen, Creative Europe/MEDIA and Kulturakademin.

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Looking ahead

How are the screen industries changing in the next 3-5 years?

The screen media are changing fast.

With production, distribution and consumption almost entirely digital, business models, audience behaviour and funding systems are in flux. New opportunities arise and old ways of thinking fall by the wayside, while the purpose of film remains the same. Regardless of format and platform, it is still all about moving the audience: sharing, entertaining, challenging, moving, uplifting.

The Nostradamus Project has as its mission to document and predict these changes on a 3-5 year horizon, and to present analysis in a manner that is equally comprehensible to producers and policymakers, stars and students. We do this through interviews with change-makers and people in strategic positions in the industry about what they are doing and creating today. Context is provided by the excellent research and journalism that is publicly available, but which you may be too busy to close read.

We have published five annual Nostradamus reports, on topics ranging from audience expectations to ad-blocking, from distribution to diversity, and from holdback windows to VR. The reports are free to download here; because of the scope, at least the last two tend to be up-to-date. In addition, we organise international seminars in Göteborg during the Nordic Film Market and in Cannes at the Marché du Film, and with a more Nordic focus during Audiovisual Days.

Nostradamus Project analysis has also been presented at film markets from Berlin to Rio, to film funds, and at meetings of for instance the EFADs Think Tank and the EFARN. The 6th annual Nostradamus report was released on Feb 1, 2019. Click here to read it! 

The 7th Nostradamus report will be released during Nordic Film Market January 31, 2020. 

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Contact information

Cia Edström, Head of Nordic Film Market and Nostradamus, cia.edstrom@goteborgfilmfestival.se Johanna Koljonen, Nostradamus editor, johanna.koljonen@participation.design General Informationindustry@goteborgfilmfestival.se

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