Nostradamus is a multiyear international initiative to document and analyse industry changes and make projections for the future. Take part of the reports, seminars and news of the Nostradamus project here!
Do or Die? The 2018 Nostradamus report is presented
During Göteborg Film Festival 2018 the 5th Nostradamus Report – titled Do or Die? – was presented. It takes on the topics of whether the film industry as we know it will survive, and what European film makers, financiers and exhibitors need to do to compete with the global majors and remain a cultural force.
The Nostradamus Project is run by Göteborg Film Festival and aims to sketch out the future of the screen industries 3-5 years from now, through interviews with industry experts and research. The annual report is written by Johanna Koljonen.
Interviewed in this year’s report are: Nadira Azermai, CEO, ScriptBook; Walter Iuzzolino, Co-founder, Walter Presents; Ivar Køhn, Head of Drama, NRK; Claus Ladegaard, CEO, Danish Film Institute; Marike Muselaers, Co-CEO, Lumière Group; Marie Nilsson, CEO, Mediavision; Edith Sepp, CEO, Estonian Film Institute and Patrick von Sychowski, editor, Celluloid Junkie.
Johanna Koljonen, writer of the Nostradamus Report, said:
– This year’s title reflects this thrilling moment of risk and opportunity faced by the film industry in particular. Cinemas are doing well, but their cultural role is shifting, and a majority of films are consumed in the home as they have been for decades. But now those later windows are all changing, technologically and more importantly in audience behavior. Monetising audience attention in the value chain, reaching especially the younger audiences who don’t respond to advertising, and remaining relevant in the content all requires shifts in attitudes and business models. That has to happen now, and especially European filmmaking with its slow-moving structures really needs to become proactive to stay connected to the audiences.
– We also take a follow-up look on gender equality in front of and behind the cinema as well as in executive positions in the industry. This connects to the more structural issues in that very homogenous leadership is less likely to have a broad understanding of changes out in the world.
At the seminar today, Johanna Koljonen presented the report and discussed it with panelists Thomas Gammeltoft, CEO, Copenhagen Film Fund; Wendy Mitchell, journalist; Edith Sepp, CEO, Estonian Film Institute and Marike Muselaers, Co-CEO, Lumière Group.
The Nostradamus Project is founded and run by Göteborg Film Festival with support from Lindholmen Science Park, Nordisk Film & TV Fond, Västra Götalandsregionen, Göteborgs stad and Creative Europe/MEDIA.
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Looking ahead
How are the screen industries changing in the next 3-5 years?
The screen media are changing fast. With production, distribution and consumption almost entirely digital, business models, audience behaviour and funding systems are in flux. New opportunities arise and old ways of thinking fall by the wayside, while the purpose of film remains the same. Regardless of format and platform, it is still all about moving the audience: sharing, entertaining, challenging, moving, uplifting.
The Nostradamus Project has as its mission to document and predict these changes on a 3-5 year horizon, and to present analysis in a manner that is equally comprehensible to producers and policymakers, stars and students. We do this through interviews with change-makers and people in strategic positions in the industry about what they are doing and creating today. Context is provided by the excellent research and journalism that is publicly available, but which you may be too busy to close read.
We have published four annual Nostradamus reports, on topics ranging from audience expectations to ad-blocking, from distribution to diversity, and from holdback windows to VR. The reports are free to download here; because of the scope, at least the last two tend to be up-to-date.
In addition, we organise international seminars in Göteborg during the Nordic Film Market and in Cannes at the Marché du Film, and with a more Nordic focus during Västsvenska Filmdagarna. Nostradamus Project analysis has also been presented at film markets from Berlin to Rio, to film funds, and at meetings of for instance the EFADs Think Tank and the EFARN.
The fifth annual Nostradamus report will be released on Feb 2, 2018.
Digitisation of Cinemas Leads to Content Diversity – and More Audience Work
On Sunday, August 20th, the Norwegian International Film Festival in Haugesund hosted a seminar on the topic “Narrow Diversity” – exploring whether content in cinemas has diversified in the wake of digitisation. The event was presented in collaboration with the Centre for the Creative Industries at the BI Norwegian Business School. Norway was the first […]
Bodies, Spaces & Communities: Experience Design for Cinemas (& VR)
On November 29th in Glasgow, Johanna Koljonen gave a keynote speech at the UK film exhibition innovation conference This Way Up. The conference provided two excellent days of interesting input for the upcoming Nostradamus report; you can find a very good writeup at the BFI and a shorter piece focusing on pricing and VR at […]
The Nostradamus Project was invited this year to give a session at the NEXT pavilion at the Marché du Film at the Cannes film festival. On Saturday, May 14th 2016, with support from .film, we presented a lecture by Nostradamus analyst Johanna Koljonen, followed by a panel with industry heavyweights Lene Børglum (Space Rocket Nation), Mike […]
We had expected 2015 to push the day-and-date discussion further, but not that the two big discussion pieces would be Netflix and Amazon originals. In October, Netflix released Beasts of No Nation in US theatres, and at Curzon cinemas in the UK. At the same time they made it available to their subscribers globally free of charge. Since this violated the […]
Piracy surging, normalized in Nordic Market Klas Palmqvist is a key player in the anti-piracy efforts of swedish industry association Sveriges Videodistributörers Förening. At the Nostradamus project´s swedish seminar in October, 2015, he presented recent statistics on piracy in the Nordic countries. See the full presentation in Swedish, or read an english summary below. Swedish […]
Göteborg Film Festival’s 5th Nostradamus Report – titled Do or Die? – was presented February 2, 2018. It takes on the topics of whether the film industry as we know it will survive, and what European film makers, financiers and exhibitors need to do to compete with the global majors and remain a cultural force. Johanna Koljonen presented the […]
This discussion from the February 2017 International Seminar delves into how the structural changes of the screen industries will impact the creative output. Participants: Roberto Olla, Executive Director, Eurimages; Rikke Ennis, CEO TrustNordisk; Mattias Nohrborg, Executive Producer B-Reel Films; and Charlotte Sieling, director.
The editor of the Nostradamus Project, media analyst Johanna Koljonen, gives an updated version of her much-appreciated lecture at the Marché du Film. After a decade of changes, challenges and trends rocking the industry, what everyone working in film needs to do next can be boiled down to five very simple pieces of advice. Liberated […]
As predicted by the Nostradamus Project, we have seen a radical growth of VR storytelling in the last year, and a continuing normalisation of multi-platform narratives in mainstream entertainment. What are the challenges and storytelling opportunities offered for the film industry by these changes? Games and storytelling innovator Carl Heath and scriptwriting legend Linda Aronson […]
Biopalatset 9, February 2 at 16.00 Open for all accredited guests Media analyst Johanna Koljonen presents the 5th annual report of the Nostradamus Project, which monitors and analyses the rapid changes in the screen industries. The presentation is followed by a discussion with invited experts. The next five years will decide whether the film industry […]
The Future is Now: Next Steps from Film Art & Screen Industries
MAY 21, FESTIVAL DE CANNES 2017 – What’s changing in funding and sales of European and art house cinema? How does VR fit into this emerging digital landscape? What is the role of theatrical distribution when most films will never reach the silver screen and the window system is changing? Lively analysis and knowledgeable debate […]
Västsvenska Filmdagarna is an increasingly important meeting place for the Swedish industry focusing on the west coast. At this year’s event, the Nostradamus Project is hosting a session on October 12th at 10.45-12.30. First Johanna Koljonen will present the updated findings from the latest Nostradamus Report. What is happening in the film industry? How is […]
For this year’s report, we have interviewed the following experts, who have given very generously of their time and thoughts: Nadira Azermai, CEO, ScriptBook Walter Iuzzolino, Co-founder, Walter Presents Ivar Køhn, Head of Drama, NRK Claus Ladegaard, CEO, Danish Film Institute Marike Muselaers, Co-CEO, Lumière Group Marie Nilsson, CEO, Mediavision Edith Sepp, CEO, Estonian Film Institute Patrick von […]
Download the Nostradamus report 2017 For this year’s report, we have interviewed the following experts, who have given very generously of their time and thoughts: Bobby Allen, VP of Content, MUBI; Catharine Des Forges, Director, Independent Cinema Office; Tomas Eskilsson, Head of Strategy, FilmVäst; Domenico La Porta, Director, R/O Institute; Joëlle Levie, Director of Operations, […]
Download the Nostradamus report 2016 For this year’s report, we have interviewed the following experts, enormously generous with their time and thoughts: Carsten Andreasen (Head of Market Insights for Northern Europe, Google/YouTube), Julie Bergeron, (Head of Industry Programs, Marché du Film in Cannes), Stefan Borgquist (Head of TV, TeliaSonera Sverige), Liselott Forsman (Executive Producer International […]
Download the Nostradamus report 2015 The 2015 Nostradamus Report was produced by the Göteborg Film Festival/ Nordic Film Market with the support of Lindholmen Science Park and released at the Nostradamus seminar on January 29th, 2015. For this year’s report, we have interviewed the following experts, enormously generous with their time and thoughts: Jakob Abrahamsson, […]
Download the Nostradamus report 2014 The 2014 Nostradamus Report was produced by the Göteborg Film Festival/ Nordic Film Market with the support of Lindholmen Science Park and Nordisk Film och TV Fond and released at the Nostradamus seminar on January 31st, 2014. Thought leaders interviewed for the first report included: Malte Andreasson, United Screens; Cecilia […]
