2026 Nostradamus Report “Challenging Projections”
Göteborg Film Festival launched the 2026 Nostradamus Report at Marché du Film in Cannes on May 18, 2026. The 13th report, Challenging Projections, authored by media analyst Johanna Koljonen, maps the audiovisual landscape as one connected ecosystem and examines how traditional ideas about business models and success are being challenged and redefined.
Annually commissioned by the Göteborg Film Festival since 2013, the Nostradamus Report analyses and forecasts the near future of the audiovisual industries through research and interviews with leading industry experts.
The 2026 report captures an industry navigating overlapping upheavals. Film, television, streaming, and creator media are no longer separate lanes but parts of one connected ecosystem. TV drama contracts, short-form scripted video is surging, and feature film production volumes are increasingly unsustainable. Starting out online now offers viable paths both into our industries and to independent creator careers, and many talents refuse to choose. The logic of the New Content Economy increasingly describes sustainable business models for all forms of IP – popular storytelling and fan creativity both sustain long-term value and demand serious attention. At the centre of this transformation sits one urgent question: whose definitions of value and success shape our art, industry, and aspirations?
“To the traditional film and TV industries, things like the creator ecosystem or the positive qualities of vertical video used to feel really abstract. But in the last year, creator-led theatrical features and the microdrama surge have finally made it click.” Johanna Koljonen says.
“What we’re still struggling with is understanding how this media ecosystem works, especially around our content, and this year’s Nostradamus report updates that map.”
Key insights from the 2026 Report:
- Projections
With global systems in upheaval and media power concentrating into fewer hands, navigating the road ahead requires grounding ourselves in observable facts rather than projecting our fears onto the sector’s map. - The Situation
TV drama production is settling at around 75% of its peak, while feature film output hits records and micro-dramas boom. The boundaries between film, television, streaming, and online video are dissolving. - Creators and Influencers as Film Professionals
Scripted online content has been a path into film and TV for over 15 years, yet industry prejudice against creators continues to block recruitment pipelines and obscure how our ecosystem already works. - Traditional Work in the New Content Economy
The creator business model, built on direct audience relationships and diversified revenue, increasingly applies to all IP, opening real possibilities for work that relies less on traditional funding. - Reckoning With the Popular
The film industry's tendency to equate the popular with the trivial draws the wrong lessons from unexpected successes and stands between our work and audiences. - Fans and Creators as Creative Partners
Creator, fan, and audience-community production now play a central role in launching titles, sustaining IP value, developing talent, expanding storyworlds, and reshaping traditional media’s relationship with online creativity. - Reimagining Success
From measuring impact over box office to ensuring the whole ecosystem can thrive, the report asks what success should mean – for institutions, companies, and the individual people who make this industry work.
2026 Nostradamus Report Interviewees
- Peter Carlton, Co-owner and Senior Executive Producer, Warp Films
- Victoria Fäh, Manager, IPR LAB at IPR.VC
- Irina Ignatiew-Lemke, Incoming Managing Director, European Film Promotion; Founder, Boxworks Media
- Martin Kanzler, Deputy Head of Department for Market Information, European Audiovisual Observatory
- Perlina Lau, Actor and Broadcaster, and Roseanne Liang, Director and Screenwriter, Flat3 Productions
- David Madden, President, WEBTOON Productions
- James Schamus, Screenwriter, Producer, Professor; former CEO of Focus Features
The 2026 Nostradamus Report was presented at Marché du Film’s Cannes Next programme on May 18 by media analyst and author Johanna Koljonen. The presentation was followed by a panel consisting of interviewees Victoria Fäh, Manager, IPR LAB at IPR.VC, and Irina Ignatiew-Lemke, Incoming Managing Director, European Film Promotion; Founder, Boxworks Media.
The Nostradamus Project, founded and run by the Göteborg Film Festival, is dedicated to monitoring, predicting, and analysing the future of the screen industries. The annual reports, written by media analyst Johanna Koljonen have been presented since 2013. In 2026, the initiative continues to expand: the 2026 edition is accompanied by the Nostradamus Perspectives newsletter series, and a new mini podcast series launching later in the year.
The 2026 Nostradamus Report is made possible with key project partners German Films and Kulturakademin, and together with two new partners this year: MOIN Film Fund Hamburg Schleswig-Holstein, joining as exclusive German regional partner, as well as the Netherlands Film Fund.
Nordisk Film & TV Fond, Creative Europe MEDIA, and Region Västra Götaland are Main Industry Funding Contributors of Göteborg Film Festival Industry, including the Nostradamus project.
The Editorial team of the Nostradamus Report consists of Johanna Koljonen, Josef Kullengård, Cia Edström, Hillevi Gustafson and Emma Caviezel.