Göteborg Film Festival presents the 2024 Nostradamus Report: Paradox of Hope 

Today, May 20, the Göteborg Film Festival unveiled the anticipated 11th edition of its annual Nostradamus Report at Marché du Film during Festival de Cannes. The report, this year with the title Paradox of Hope, is written by industry analyst Johanna Koljonen.  

The Nostradamus report analyzes and forecasts the near future of the faster-than-ever evolving audiovisual industries through research, and interviews with industry experts.  

Paradox of Hope explores the striking contradictions shaping trends in the audiovisual sector, where experiences of decline and growth, threat and opportunity, fear and hope coexist. 

 “This year’s report points to paths for positive change in an industry beset by crises and challenged by the economic dominance of a small number of companies. In financial terms, and unfortunately therefore also in terms of job security, the sector is really struggling. But the true value proposition is the quality of films and the engagement of the audience with that quality, and on those parameters we’re really delivering,” Johanna Koljonen comments.

”The end of the production boom has clarified a lot of opportunities, and if the industry is willing to not just make great work but also do the necessary work of audience development and up-skilling, we are paradoxically quite hopeful for arthouse film and theatrical exhibition in particular.”  

Key insights from the 2024 report include:  

• Over the next 3-5 years, as the market correction continues, the industry must also adjust to new technologies and workflows. Changes in the wider audiovisual marketplace are perceived as existential threats for traditional film and TV, and the ongoing climate crises, wars, and civil unrest will have unpredictable effects on markets, industries, and artists. 
• The current volume of feature films cannot be sustained in movie theatres. Five years from now theatrical releases will be fewer, in part because of traumatic market effects, in part because of proactive and constructive selection, nurturing and curation of projects and their audiences. 
• Successful cinema experiences must be highly engaging to attract audiences, adding work for exhibitors, distributors, and producers, but offering growth potential for unique films. 
• Audiences appreciation for quality storytelling creates opportunities for strong authorial voices, moving beyond traditional categories and fostering a sustainable cross-platform business models. Theatrical exhibition can still play a significant role, including with Millennials, Gen Z, and Gen Alpha. 
• Collaborative approaches in production, distribution, and exhibition offer an opportunity to enhance industry resilience, reduce dependence on traditional exhibition and streaming platforms, and strengthen local industries. 
• Virtual Production and Generative AI are transforming filmmaking. The entertainment sector, as an early adopter, can influence AI applications and advocate for relevant legislation. Rapid development is influenced by local factors like infrastructure and training availability. We will understand filmmaking more as a mastery of the principles of audiovisual storytelling than as the ability to produce a moving image. The industry must adapt together, or risk being left behind. 
• AI advancements in advertising and content recommendation will increase competition in Connected TV. Despite potential dystopian outcomes, consumers will likely have a positive experience. Surprisingly, theatrical exhibition may also benefit. 
• In uncertain times, we as an industry need to emphasize human connections, valuing the audience and the people within the industry. 

Featured Interviewees for the 2024 report include:
Angela Chan, Professor and Head of Inclusive Futures for CoSTAR
Fatima Djoumer, CEO of Europa Cinemas
Gaia Tridente, Director of MIA – Mercato Internazionale Audiovisivo
Guillaume Esmiol, Executive Director of Marché du Film
Hanna Reifgerst, Programmer for Young Audiences at Nordische Filmtage Lübeck
Joanna Szymańska, Producer at Shipsboy
Kjersti Mo, CEO of Norwegian Film Institute
Robert Franke, Vice President Drama at ZDF Studios
Tabitha Jackson, Consultant and Film Executive
Ted Hope, Producer and Co-founder of Double Hope Films
Tomas Eskilsson, Head of Strategy at Film i Väst 

The 2024 Nostradamus Report was presented at Marché du Film’s Cannes Next programme on May 20 by media analyst and author Johanna Koljonen. The presentation was followed by a panel consisting of: Lars Blomgren (Head of International, MediaRes), Matthijs Wouter Knol (Director, European Film Academy), and Malika Rabahallah (Festival Director, Filmfest Hamburg). 

The Nostradamus Project, founded and managed by the Göteborg Film Festival, is dedicated to monitoring, predicting, and analyzing the future of the screen industries. This initiative is made possible with the support of key partners BoostHBG and Kulturakademin, alongside support from Nordisk Film & TV Fond and the Region Västra Götaland.  

Download the full report.