How are the screen industries changing in the next 3-5 years?

The screen media are changing fast.

With production, distribution and consumption almost entirely digital, business models, audience behaviour and funding systems are in flux. New opportunities arise and old ways of thinking fall by the wayside, while the purpose of film remains the same. Regardless of format and platform, it is still all about moving the audience: sharing, entertaining, challenging, moving, uplifting.

The Nostradamus Project has as its mission to document and predict these changes on a 3-5 year horizon, and to present analysis in a manner that is equally comprehensible to producers and policymakers, stars and students. We do this through interviews with change-makers and people in strategic positions in the industry about what they are doing and creating today. Context is provided by the excellent research and journalism that is publicly available, but which you may be too busy to close read.

We have published eight annual Nostradamus reports, on topics ranging from audience expectations to ad-blocking, from distribution to diversity, and from holdback windows to VR. The reports are free to download here. In addition, we organize international seminars in Göteborg during the Nordic Film Market and in Cannes at the Marché du Film, Berlinale, too mention a few.

Nostradamus Project analysis has also been presented at film markets from Ghent to Rio, to film funds, and at meetings of for instance the EFADs Think Tank and the EFARN. The 8th annual Nostradamus report ”Transforming Storytelling together” was released on Feb 4, 2021. Click here to read it! 

The 9th Nostradamus report will be released during Nordic Film Market 2022. 

Project presented by

Contact information

Cia Edström, Head of Nordic Film Market and Nostradamus, cia.edstrom@goteborgfilmfestival.se Johanna Koljonen, Nostradamus editor, johanna.koljonen@participation.design General Information: industry@goteborgfilmfestival.se

Göteborg Film Festival’s 8th Nostradamus Report – ”Transforming Storytelling Together” – was presented on February 4 at the festival’s annual Nostradamus seminar. The annual report looks into the future of the screen industries 3-5 years from now through research and interviews with industry experts. The 2021 report expects the industry to go through an extensive reality check moving from streaming to reality warfare, and from pandemic to green issues.

Johanna Koljonen’s talk with Walter Iuzzolino from TV Drama Vision.

We’re used to one year’s progress being subtle and mild. This year’s rude pandemic awakening has accelerated the structural changes already underway. Johanna Koljonen’s Nostradamus Report 2021 takes a look at the impact five years ahead in terms of collapsing windows and the transformation into a content releasing landscape, shaped in a common effort among virtually every stakeholder in the industry.

In a future perspective, theatrical exhibition will be diminished as a market, but revitalised as a dynamic and influential part of film culture. Five years from now, virtual production will have normalised across the industry, unlocking opportunities and artistic innovation. Other main topics in the report include strong European stories crossing language barriers, and how to keep delivering to the aging traditional audience while appealing to the TikTok generation of viewers and talent.

A special section looks at the European industry in the context of this year’s implementation of the AVMS directive.

”Growth in the TV marketplace will compensate for the challenges in feature distribution. But it’s important not to get complacent! When the whole landscape is shifting at the same time, anyone who isn’t actively innovating may find themselves sidelined.” says Johanna Koljonen, author of the Nostradamus Report.

This year’s interview subjects were: Alex Stolz/ Founder, Future of Film, and Head of Film, usheru Founder and Head of Film at Future of Film, Ari Tolppanen/ Investor and Chairman at Aristo-Invest, Brian Newman/ Producer, Consultant, Founder at Sub-Genre, Elisa Alvares/ Corporate Finance Consultant, Jacaranda Consultants, Filippa Wallestam/ EVP and Chief Content Officer at NENT Group, Mariana Acuña Acosta/ CPO & Co-founder at Glassbox Technologies, Marike Muselaers/ Co-CEO at Lumiere Group, Roberto Olla/ Executive Director at Eurimages, Walter Iuzzolino/ CEO at Eagle Eye Drama.

In addition, a special update on the progress of the implementation of the AVMS directive has been written (from the report) by Petri Kemppinen, founder P1 Kemppinen.

The 8th Nostradamus report was presented by Johanna Koljonen at the 2021 online edition of Göteborg Film Festival’s Nordic Film Market. The presentation was followed by a conversation with Tomas Eskilsson, Head of Strategy at Film i Väst on their upcoming European report on public financing, Public Funding at a Crossroads. The report is a research project from Film i Väst in collaboration with Cine-Regio and Nostradamus.

Nostradamus Report: Transforming Storytelling Together can be downloaded here

The Nostradamus Project is founded and run by Göteborg Film Festival with support from and in collaboration with Lead Partner Film i Väst and with additional support from Nordisk Film & TV Fond, Västra Götalandsregionen, Creative Europe/MEDIA and Kulturakademin.