How are the screen industries changing in the next 3-5 years?

The screen media are changing fast.

With production, distribution and consumption almost entirely digital, business models, audience behaviour and funding systems are in flux. New opportunities arise and old ways of thinking fall by the wayside, while the purpose of film remains the same. Regardless of format and platform, it is still all about moving the audience: sharing, entertaining, challenging, moving, uplifting.

The Nostradamus Project has as its mission to document and predict these changes on a 3-5 year horizon, and to present analysis in a manner that is equally comprehensible to producers and policymakers, stars and students. We do this through interviews with change-makers and people in strategic positions in the industry about what they are doing and creating today. Context is provided by the excellent research and journalism that is publicly available, but which you may be too busy to close read.

We have published eight annual Nostradamus Reports, on topics ranging from audience expectations to ad-blocking, from distribution to diversity, and from holdback windows to VR. The reports are free to download here. In addition, we organize international seminars in Göteborg during the Nordic Film Market and in Cannes at the Marché du Film, Berlinale, too mention a few.

Nostradamus Project analysis has also been presented at film markets from Ghent to Rio, to film funds, and at meetings of for instance, the EFADs Think Tank and the EFARN. The 9th annual Nostradamus Report ”Imagining a Sustainable Industry” was released on 23 May 2022. Click here to read it! 

Author and media analyst: Johanna Koljonen

Editorial team: Cia Edström, Josef Kullengård, Johanna Koljonen

Editorial advisors: Åsa Garnert, Tomas Eskilsson

The Nostradamus Project is founded and run by Göteborg Film Festival with support from and in collaboration with Lead Partner Film i Väst and with additional support from Nordisk Film & TV Fond, Västra Götalandsregionen, Creative Europe/MEDIA and Kulturakademin.

Project presented by

Contact information

Cia Edström, Head of Nordic Film Market and Nostradamus, cia.edstrom@goteborgfilmfestival.se

Johanna Koljonen, Nostradamus author, johanna.koljonen@participation.design

General Information: industry@goteborgfilmfestival.se

Göteborg Film Festival’s 9th Nostradamus Report, ”Imagining a Sustainable Industry”, was presented today May 23 at the Marché du Film in Cannes. The annual report looks into the near future of the audiovisual industries through research and interviews with industry experts.

Download the report 2022

Rewatch the presentation and panel here

How can we build a long-term sustainable industry, taking into consideration financial, social as well as environmental perspectives? How do we create qualitative content that is relevant for broad audiences while also guaranteeing durable artistic and independent structures? What would it take to get there?

This year’s Nostradamus Report paints a picture of the current industry landscape and its challenges, outlining a set of directions on where we could be heading, as an industry but also as a society.

In the 2022 report we have a particular spotlight on Europe. As the global streaming giants are settling their positions, the unprecedented growth in production and capital has strongly challenged the European models across the board. The future role of public audiovisual investments and the independence of the European sector is under development, while also facing an increased volatility in the global economy and a geopolitical crisis in Europe.

The report also highlights the urgent issue of industry health, and discusses how transforming working conditions across the industry should offer financial, artistic, and efficiency benefits directly.

”Our track record has always been surprisingly good, but in this ninth year of the report, the uncertain political and economic situations have finally made firm predictions impossible. Instead the report identifies tensions and pivot points where the outcomes will be determined in the next few years through choices made by stakeholders all across the value chain. We all have an opportunity now to truly affect which future we want for the industry”, says Johanna Koljonen, author of the Nostradamus Report.

The 2022 Nostradamus Report is built around interviews with the following experts:
Bero Beyer, CEO of the Netherlands Film Fund.
Christian Bräuer, Managing Director Yorck Kino Gruppe, and President of CICAE, the International Confederation of Arthouse Cinemas.
Michael Gubbins, Consultant and journalist, SampoMedia Johannes Jensen, Head of Scripted, Banijay Nordic.
Julie-Jeanne Régnault, Secretary-General of European Film Agency Directors Association (EFAD).
Evan Shapiro, Producer, Media Studies professor at NYU and Fordham U, and unofficial cartographer of the Media Universe. Josefine Tengblad, Founder and producer, Nordic Drama Queens.
Kjartan Þór Þórðarson, CEO and executive producer, Sagafilm Nordic.